Thursday’s HOLD YOUR TITS Hockey Picks
Phoenix @ Boston (UNDER 5.5) (WINNER!)
For Boston: they have had games over 5.5 four out of their last ten home games. For Phoenix: they have had games over 5.5 in four of their last ten road games. Basically I’m going with the odds on this one. Recently (last 10 away games), Phoenix has had low scoring games 60% of the time. While in their last 10 home games, Boston has had the same percentage of low scoring games (60%). Amongst my peers and family I am not known as what you might call a “numbers” guy, but honestly I need a reason to pick something on this game. The spread sucks (PHX +1.5/BOS-1.5) because this game is pretty much a toss-up from my perspective. You never know what team you’re going to get on a random regular season night with the Bruins. You’re either going to get the Brad Marchand and David Krejci lesson on how to score sick goals with barely above average talent; or you’re going to get the Zedno Chara lesson on how a team can stay within one goal of winning a game when all they seem to have for offense is a 7 foot tall guy raining life threatening clappers in the broad direction of the net. Seriously, is anyone else sick of the Bruins having the same roster year to year and somehow turning out completely different results? This isn’t baseball, get your fucking shit together over there. The Yotes are the team that can steal games. They catch you on an off night or get a couple good bounces and before you know it you’ve lost the 1 goal lead and are just trying to tie things up; just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning. Either way, I don’t see this game going over 5.5. Neither team is known to really “light” the lamp. If you need something to help your bitch ass sleep tonight, Boston ranks 2nd in the NHL in goals against coming in at 2.2 per game.
Sugar’s Pick: UNDER 5.5
San Jose (-130) @ Columbus (WINNER!)
San Jose heads into Columbus riding a 3 game win streak. They have only given up an average of 23.3 shots per game in their last 3 games. In that same span the Sharks have averaged 42.6 shots on goal. The Bluejackets have given up an average 33.6 shots per game over their last 3, while averaging 32 shots on goal. San Jose plays a puck possession game modeled after the Detroit Red Wings and tends to win games when they have a higher “shots taken vs shots given up” ratio. This may seem mundane and obvious for winning but it’s not. Teams like the Blues and the Caps are known for a more “run and gun” style of play. They sacrifice the open shots for attempts at forcing the puck into high probability scoring areas, often resulting in a turn over but occasionally resulting in a good scoring chance. The end result on the stat sheet for this style of play is often the winning team being outshot but not out scored; as a higher percentage of the shots come from better locations. I expect San Jose to control the game tonight and come away with a win.
Sugar’s Pick: San Jose -130
New York Rangers (+1.5) @ Minnesota (WINNER!)
Minnesota is riding a 3 game losing streak, the last 2 coming at home, and the most recent to the Oilers. I don’t expect anything exciting out of this matchup but I do expect the Rangers to cover if not win. I still think the Rangers have a very well built roster that doesn’t put a tremendous amount of weight on any one particular player other than Lundqvist but he fuckin lives for that shit. Minnesota is a different story; they rely heavily on Parise and Sutter. I don’t think Minnesota wins this game but just to play it safe I’m taking the spread on this one.
Sugar’s Pick: Rangers +1.5
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