The Dirty Picks NBA Over/Under Preview
It's basically the middle of winter, so it's time for our NBA Over/Under podcast column! As things start to cool down, easing into the NBA season with over/unders is the best way to get your head away from Pumpkin Spice lattés and fantasy football. Grab some cash from under grandma's mattress (she forgot it was there anyways, grandma played in the NFL and has CTE) and load up on these winners! Oh and you may note that Catz and BJ have separate picks here. The winner at the end of the year gets to pound Kate Upton out like a mallard duck, so there's something to look forward to!
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - 26.5
CATZ
Prediction: 31
WOW, this one was surprising. I guess I am more in on this Boston team than Vegas is. They had a solid draft, decent off-season and while I don't see them making the playoffs, I would be shocked if this team won less than 30 games. Take the over here as 26.5 is way too low for a team with decent talent and solid coaching, added bonus: the potential Ewing theory effect when Rondo gets shipped out mid-season.
BJ
Prediction: 28
I am going to agree with the Catz here, even though he thinks he's Bill fuckin Simmons. The Celtics have talent and a smart coaching staff/front office. Let's assume that they keep Rondo; that leaves them with Marcus "Buckets" Thornton, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, James Young, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace's ghost and a host of mediocre bigs. There is enough talent there to accrue 27+ wins by beating shitty Eastern conference teams. I like the over here and I think the Celts are a lock for at least 28 wins.
Toronto Raptors - 49.5
CATZ
Prediction: 42
I think this season is when Toronto falls back towards the middle of the pack. They over-achieved last year, sure it's a decently talented roster that improved dramatically after shipping out the notorious ball-stopper and offense killer Rudy Gay, but this still isn't a team ready to compete for a title quite yet. They still need another piece, or at least for Derozan to emerge as a true game-changing superstar. I think they crash back to reality this year and win way less than 45.5 games, I wouldn't be surprised if they finish under 40 wins.
BJ
Prediction: 48
Apparently my co-writer did not watch basketball last season. I have never liked Demar as a starting 2 guard. He was just an athlete/slasher that played mediocre defense. Well, last year, he finally took a step in the right direction. I don't think he needs to be a superstar on this team; just an All-Star. If he can continue to compliment the Raps offense with a 22-4-4 effort, they will do just fine in the East. Throw in Jonas Valenciunas and Kyle Lowry and you have the formula for a 2 or 3 seed this year. They play in the same division as Philly which just adds to the over here.
Brooklyn Nets - 41.5
CATZ
Prediction: 44.5
The Nets could be in trouble this season. I thought I was being generous predicting a win total in the mid-forties and it turns out I was correct. Brooklyn was in win-now mode when they went all in last season until they got rocked by Miami in the playoffs. Now they have lost arguably their best player from last season, get Lopez back off a foot injury (an injury that has a history of ruining careers of big men) and the decrepit bodies of Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett (he might have died actually...nope still playing) and Deron Williams. Unless Iso-Joe has found the fountain of youth and Deron Williams actually starts looking like a competent PG again, this season could go south in a hurry. On the plus side they did bring in Lionel Hollins, who should be able to improve the defense a little bit, but who the hell on this roster is actually going to play D? Yeah I would take the under here, and it might not be close.
BJ
Prediction: 45
I figured the Nets would be getting some respect here. They have vets/stars that know how to get to the playoffs, and some solid role players. Joe Johnson is still good and Deron Williams should be able to throw together 20 games. I honestly hate this team and hated them even more last year, but I respect Lionel Hollins. Perfect old school coach for an old school type of team. 45 wins, great defense and a first round playoff exit.
New York Knicks - 41.5
CATZ
Prediction: 42.5
On the other side of the city we have the NEW YORK FREAKIN KNICKERBOCKERS!!! My personal favorite team, struggled mightily last season and saying they underachieved would be like calling Kanye West rational. This team was a disaster last season, so they traded Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton (arguably the worst player in the NBA last season) which should at least improve the chemistry issues. You know what else will help this team? Phil Jackson's presence, the Zen Master wins games and knows how to push the right buttons. Whether that means smoking blunts with JR Smith before home games, or listening to Melo's wife LaLa ramble on about her acting career while acting like he's interested, the man knows what he's doing. So I am all in (back in) on the Knicks this season, Melo is going to have a career year and they had a decent off-season which should enable them to get to 45-47 wins.
BJ
Prediction: 41
Damn it. This is tough. On one hand, I HATE the Knicks roster. On the other, I think Carmelo Anthony has been put in such a negative light that he is now underrated. He put up a 27-8, did not give up on his team and really took pride in doing things he is known not to do. JR Smith turned into a cancer (surprise) and the rest of the team was just garbage.Thus lies the problem. Nothing has changed. They brought in Jose Calderon who I love, but he needs to be in a free flowing offense, not the Triangle. Shumpert? Not that good. Bargnani? Still not good. Amare?!!! AMARE STOUDEMIRE?!! Yeah, that's the Knicks. Good luck.
Philadelphia 76ers - 16.5
CATZ
Prediction: 15
Oh man this is a tough one. The 76ers are trotting out a lineup that some of the D-league teams could beat on a random Tuesday back-to-back type scenario. Seriously this team is the epitome of a tank-job, stashing away number one picks for entire seasons just to continue to stockpile assets and rebuild for the future. I like what they are doing, but it's hard to imagine the product they are putting out on the floor this year is winning more than fifteen games. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't win ten, they are that bad. Granted in three years they could have a stellar lineup of Embiid, Noel, and some other players, but this season, not so much. Sneaky Prop Bet: Throw a couple bucks on Nerlens Noel to win Rookie of the Year, because he didn't play last year he is still eligible to win the award and looked dominant in summer league (take that with a grain of salt) and will get tons of opportunity playing with such a shitty roster.
BJ
Prediction: 16
I love Nerlens Noel and he is definitely winning ROY. This team SUCKS and it's a joke that the NBA allows this to happen. Do I fault the Sixers for doing this? No! They're just taking advantage of the system! Either way, this is a joke of a team and I hope they're never on TV.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls - 56
CATZ
Prediction: 57
As you can see, Vegas and I are pretty much in total harmony on this one. We both expect Chicago to have a solid season with the addition of Pau Gasol and the return of D Rose at full, as my editor would say, “scrimpf."This team is going to be nasty, you got the defensive genius that is Thibs, combined with the talent that is on this Bull’s roster, including sleeper ROTY candidate Douggie McBuckets, and you have a team that could easily hit 60 wins. That’s why I am taking the over here and watching the Bulls fight the Cavs for the beast of the East.
BJ
As you can see, Vegas and I are pretty much in total harmony on this one. We both expect Chicago to have a solid season with the addition of Pau Gasol and the return of D Rose at full, as my editor would say, “scrimpf."This team is going to be nasty, you got the defensive genius that is Thibs, combined with the talent that is on this Bull’s roster, including sleeper ROTY candidate Douggie McBuckets, and you have a team that could easily hit 60 wins. That’s why I am taking the over here and watching the Bulls fight the Cavs for the beast of the East.
BJ
Prediction: 53.5
Here we go again. Everyone thinks this team is ready to take "the leap" and win the title. No, they haven't been close, they're not going to make it. It baffles me to no end how Chi Town continues to ignore the fact that no one on this team can score besides D Rose. Oh and that guy? He's perpetually injured and he won't last more than 50 games this season. Congrats on having Jimmy Butler and Taj score 30 combined per game. Also, I love McDermott, but if has to do any more than run around screens and play some weak zone on defense, he's going to get fucked up. Sorry Thibs and fellas, I like you, but Derek Rose has to go before you win a title.
Cleveland Cavaliers (aka the mistake by the lake) - 59
CATZ
Prediction: 58.5
Again, Vegas and I seem to be better friends than Hall and Oates! This team is ridiculously talented, with really the only question coming at who’s going to be their defensive center, but the talent of K Love, Bron Bron and Kyrie should cover any perceived deficiencies they have, at least on paper. Like a delicious lemon crème pie, this is going to take a while to gel, but when it does the results should be very sweet indeed! Though because I think the learning curve is going to be steep for a while, and teams will be treating every game against the Cavs like a playoff game, I would actually recommend taking the under here. They probably win 50-55, but should finish under this projection.
BJ
Prediction: 58
Makes sense. The Cavs are going to need a little time to get things together and there will be the inevitable Dion Waiters controversy. Overall, they have the talent to be a 62 win team. I'll go with 58 just because there will be a rough stretch somewhere during the season, but I think they will dominate in the playoffs. As long as Waiters doesn't blow up, this team will be solid.
Detroit Pistons - 36
CATZ
Prediction: 37.5I figured this is where Vegas would set the line, though I am really not sure why. Sure they hired Stan Van Gundy who has a rep as being a very underrated ball coach, but the roster is the still largely the same right? They still have Josh Smith who had one of the worst seasons of his career last year, and has somehow regressed in terms shot selection while also becoming a unrepentant gunner. Those two things combine to kill offenses, and I don’t see Stan Van as being able to harness that in. Now if they trade Smoove in the middle of the season they might be able to hit this projection, but if he remains on the roster, and all indications are that he will, go with the under.
BJ
Prediction: 40.5
No respect for the Notorious SVG!! This is a man that took the immature Dwight Howard, made him dominant and went to the finals! He made Jameer Nelson an All-Star and didn't let JJ Reddick sink into white guy obscurity. Word out of Pistons camp is that SVG is already making an impact and I fully expect Andre Drummond to blossom under the Hedeghog's tutelage.
No respect for the Notorious SVG!! This is a man that took the immature Dwight Howard, made him dominant and went to the finals! He made Jameer Nelson an All-Star and didn't let JJ Reddick sink into white guy obscurity. Word out of Pistons camp is that SVG is already making an impact and I fully expect Andre Drummond to blossom under the Hedeghog's tutelage.
Indiana Pacers - 34
CATZ
Prediction: 30
What a terrible off season for the Pacers. Starting with the loss of Born Ready to the Hornets, and then the gruesome Paul George injury that led to him being sidelined for the season and possibly longer. So what’s left? Roy Hibbert that’s who. And what does that spell for the team? That spells disaster, Hibs took a huge step back in the second half of the season and into the playoffs last year, and I have officially sold all of my Roy Roy stock. This team could be one of the worst in the league this year, sure they will be stingy on defense, but they had trouble scoring last season and this year is going to be ten times worse. Don’t be surprised if they win 25 games in a terrible East, they are that bad.
JABARI!!! He should be fun to watch, the rest of the team is garbage. Maybe if Larry Sanders stay’s out of bar fights he could bounce back to his 2012 form, but that’s asking a lot out of L-dog. I want to take the under, but I feel like Parker could push them over, so fuck it I’m taking the over and then get pissed when they win 15.
What a terrible off season for the Pacers. Starting with the loss of Born Ready to the Hornets, and then the gruesome Paul George injury that led to him being sidelined for the season and possibly longer. So what’s left? Roy Hibbert that’s who. And what does that spell for the team? That spells disaster, Hibs took a huge step back in the second half of the season and into the playoffs last year, and I have officially sold all of my Roy Roy stock. This team could be one of the worst in the league this year, sure they will be stingy on defense, but they had trouble scoring last season and this year is going to be ten times worse. Don’t be surprised if they win 25 games in a terrible East, they are that bad.
BJ
Prediction: 33
Sad circumstances for the Pacers this offseason, but they did it to themselves. Roy Hibbert is so screwed up at this point, they should just sell low. David West is still good, but how long can he continue to play at a high level? Oh and you don't let Lance Stephenson walk, not unless you're getting Eric Bledsoe. The other problem? Frank Vogel sucks at using his bench, this is a rebuild year for the Pacers.
Sad circumstances for the Pacers this offseason, but they did it to themselves. Roy Hibbert is so screwed up at this point, they should just sell low. David West is still good, but how long can he continue to play at a high level? Oh and you don't let Lance Stephenson walk, not unless you're getting Eric Bledsoe. The other problem? Frank Vogel sucks at using his bench, this is a rebuild year for the Pacers.
Milwaukee Bucks - 24.5
CATZ
Prediction: 26.5JABARI!!! He should be fun to watch, the rest of the team is garbage. Maybe if Larry Sanders stay’s out of bar fights he could bounce back to his 2012 form, but that’s asking a lot out of L-dog. I want to take the under, but I feel like Parker could push them over, so fuck it I’m taking the over and then get pissed when they win 15.
BJ
Prediction: 27
Wow, I don't know why I thought Vegas would set this line so high. 24.5 is probably too much, mostly because I think J Kidd sucks. This team is just here to rebuild another year. They've already squandered the potential of Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders is an idiot. That leaves a very talented Jabari Parker to turn this shit show around. Then again, that could be reason enough to take the over. If Parker plays great, OJ Mayo loses 25lbs, Sanders plays, Ilyasova gets back to regular form and J Kidd isn't a disaster, this team could be banging out the 8 spot in the East! Oh, and don't forget Giannis Antetokounmpo! He somehow grew another 14 inches this summer, so if this team isn't the winner I'm predicting, it will definitely be exciting.
Wow, I don't know why I thought Vegas would set this line so high. 24.5 is probably too much, mostly because I think J Kidd sucks. This team is just here to rebuild another year. They've already squandered the potential of Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders is an idiot. That leaves a very talented Jabari Parker to turn this shit show around. Then again, that could be reason enough to take the over. If Parker plays great, OJ Mayo loses 25lbs, Sanders plays, Ilyasova gets back to regular form and J Kidd isn't a disaster, this team could be banging out the 8 spot in the East! Oh, and don't forget Giannis Antetokounmpo! He somehow grew another 14 inches this summer, so if this team isn't the winner I'm predicting, it will definitely be exciting.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - 42
CATZ
Prediction: 40
I get that the Hawks have a coach who is a former assistant of Pops in San Antonio, but that doesn't mean we should just pencil them in for 45 wins every season. I think they absolutely regress this year even with Al Horford coming back off a season ending injury last year. They are probably going to sell a portion of the team after their owner or part owner came out and called Luo Deng a terrorist or something, and there may even be a little mini-mutiny on the part of the players after those comments. I think this situation gets worse before it gets better, and the Hawks even in a terrible East win 35-40 games.
BJONES
Prediction: 43
Despite playing in a sneaky-good division, the Hawks are a good team with a racist front office. Mike Bootyhouser (whatever his name is) loves to shoot threes and get up and down the field. Somehow, this a Paul Trillsap contract year, so you know he's going to be an All-Star. Combine that with Horford and new big man Adreian Payne and the Hawks should kill it in the East.
Charlotte Hornets - 44.5
CATZ
Prediction: 44
This is my favorite team before the season actually kicks off. I played with them in NBA 2k15 (for what that is worth) and they were exhilarating. When I needed a bucket I gave the ball to Lance, when I wanted to watch someone put on a clinic I would go to Big Al in the post. Defensive perimeter shutdown defender? Switch over to MKG and shut em down. They are talented, somewhat deep, and should only improve on the success they had last year with their new additions.
BJONES
Prediction: 40
Wow! 44.5 games? Do you guys realize this team was the Charlotte Bobcats for years? I mean, one year of success is nice, but not "45 game the next year" nice! I love Kemba Walker, I love Big Al and I love Lance, but within that same love triangle lies the issue: Lance. Throwing Lance into the mix is like throwing a stick of dynamite into a fireworks cart. Yeah sometimes it will workout and you'll get a more incredible show than when Gandalf comes into town! Other times, just a fuckin disaster. Things are chaotic and uncontrollable, hell, someone might even die! So with that, I'm staying away from that over. I really want this team to succeed, but they better hope for 42 best case scenario.
Miami Heat - 44.5
CATZ
Prediction: 43.5
Finally we get the chance to see the thing that everyone has been asking for years!! Let's see Bosh operate as a number one option so we can decide if he's a legitimate star or not!! Finally!! It is about time!! Say what now? Oh, no one cares about Chris Bosh or the Miami Heat now that LeBron plays in Cleveland? Hmm...well sorry Chris, good luck winning 40 games with this weirdly assembled team that could struggle even in the weaker East.
BJONES
Prediction: 40
No. I don't care if they have Luol Deng, I hate the Heat and I hate D Wade. He's done, Bosh will be decent and everyone else can suck it. Oh and when you're seeing headlines like "Wade unsure of role with Heat" you know there's problems. They have Shabazz Napier, but other than that, nothing to get excited about.
Orlando Magic - 27.5
CATZ
Prediction: 23.5
The Magic are going to be a solid ass team!!! In three or four years. Now? Well they have a lot of talent, but wins? Nah, probably not. They absolutely will lead the league in Aaron Gordon freak-nasty alley-oops and crazy putbacks at impossible angles. So there is that. But winning over 25 games? Not very likely from a team that is going to ask for huge contributions out of Ben Gordon and Channing Frye.
BJones
Prediction: 25
Jacque Vaughn is still the coach of this team for some reason and they have not done anything to make me think they will win more than 25 games. You know why? Because they don't have anyone that can consistently score 18 points efficiently! They did get Evan Fournier who is a nice piece on the perimeter, but the Gordon Brothers (or "Brothas") aren't doing anything from outside, Elfrid Payton will be a good player, but probably not what they need right now. It will be interesting to see how Nikola Vucevic progresses, but other than that, no bueno.
Washington Wizards - 47.5
CATZ
Prediction: 47.5
I wanted to take the over on whatever the Washington line was set on, because I really like this team and their strong finish last season. Then? Bradley Beal got hurt for six weeks or so and all of a sudden some of those games might be a little closer than they originally should be. That and how long can Paul Pierce keep going? I mean he has to be over the hill eventually right? What is this his 55th NBA season? Didn't they Celtics win the title in 2007, and Pierce was on the verge of retirement then? How is he still playing seven years later?? That's a lot of questions for a team predicted to win almost 48 games, I am taking the under.
BJONES
Prediction: 48
Catz is right here. The Wiz are going to be good and probably identical to the Raptors this year. They need John Wall to continue his progression towards being a top 10 player in the NBA. Meanwhile, Bradley Beal needs to stay healthy for 5 fuckin minutes so the Wiz have a shot at 50. There's a lot of dudes on this team that have been paid, so we could see a drop off in production and a gain in weight for some of the big men. Good team, solid win total. Should be a 4 seed.
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