College Football Picks - Week 3

NCAA Football Week 3 Picks

#11 Clemson -6.5 @ Louisville

The Cardinals (0-2) are coming off a loss courtesy of the University of Houston.  Clemson on the other hand has outscored their opponents 90-20 over the first 2 weeks.  That stat sounds a lot better if you don’t look into it.  Clemson defeated Wofford 49-10 and Appalachian State 41-10; not exactly what you might call big wins.  Regardless, Louisville is 0-2 with a loss to Houston and Clemson hasn’t given up more than 1 touchdown in a game yet this season.  Clemson is a team that has quietly racked up a very respectable record.  The Tigers are 42-11 over the past 4 seasons and have finished each of those seasons ranked in the Top 25 with 1 Top 10 finish (2013).  This game will be played on Thursday night (9/17) so there’s that to think about as well.  The obvious observation to make is Clemson has a huge advantage on a short week right now; their offense has dominated and their defense has been stifling.  Louisville on the other hand has 2 less day to get their shit together and figure out how to beat Clemson.  It’s the first ACC game of the year as well and Clemson has high hopes of winning the conference this season.

OVER/UNDER: OVER 51 (-115) 

#9 Florida State @ Boston College +7.5

After going 2-10 in the 2012 season Boston College decided to cut ties with HC Frank Spaziani and bring in Steve Addazio to take the team in a new direction.  In the 2 seasons since, the Eagles have gone 7-6 both years.  7-6 might be considered a failure for many programs but adding 5 more wins in one season is always impressive.  In addition to salvaging the program, Addazio and his team pulled off a big upset last season in Week 3 at home against the #9 ranked team in the nation: USC.  Ironically, on Friday night the Eagles will step into the exact same situation one year later.  All of these fun facts are cool and all but this is really just about the spread.  The reality is Jimbo Fisher is 35-2 against unranked opponents when his team is ranked in the Top 20.  BC hasn’t beaten FSU since 2009.  But I do like Boston to cover the spread here and lose a game where their fans think they had a chance but they really never had a prayer.  

#23 Northwestern +3.5 @ Duke

I should start by saying, I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick.  I like that Northwestern beat Stanford in week 1. I would love to see the Wildcats go down there and beat what people consider a respectable ACC team.  This is Dukes first real game of the season which could put them at a disadvantage since the Wildcats faced Stanford in week 1.  

Stanford @ #6 USC -10

For a couple years there it was like the PAC12 was in the twilight zone.  Stanford was the team to beat and USC wasn’t even back page news.  It appears though, that the universe has righted itself and restored balance.  USC entered last season with high hopes and came up short, finishing 9-4.  Right now they’re sitting pretty nice, ranked 6th in the nation.  The Cardinals are 1-1 with a loss on the road to Northwestern.  They went 8-5 last season; their worst record since 2009.  It seems as though the times are changing for Stanford.  They arose from the shit and now they must return.  Stanford had 6 winning seasons between 1987 and 2007.  The Trojans should dominate here at home.

SMU @ #3 TCU -37.5

Typically I abide by my rule of staying away from crazy lines but, this one is just screaming free money.  The Horned Frogs obviously have a ridiculous offense.  They get going and they just bury teams.  SMU got blown out by 35 against Baylor even though they went into the 2nd half down by 7.  TCU is an even better team and they’re at home.

#15 Ole Miss @ #2 Alabama -7

A lot of people are talking about this game like there’s going to be some crazy upset.  I don’t think 2 blow out wins over terrible teams means a damn thing for Ole Miss.  Actually, I take that back, I think it hurts them if anything.  Putting up 73 points on Fresno State might make you feel all warm and cozy inside but it does absolutely nothing to prepare a team to face Alabama.  Once again, I take that back. If anything, putting up 70+ points 2 weeks in a row against garbage teams is detrimental to your offensive decision making.  Bama is somewhat out of the spotlight due to all the hype surrounding Ohio State but they are still the 2nd best team in the nation.  

Northern Illinois @ #1 Ohio State -35

I claim that I have rules for staying away from these lines but here I am again taking the bait.  Ohio State is too good not to put on a serious offensive display against Northern Illinois.