College Football Picks - Week 3

NCAA Football Week 3 Picks

#11 Clemson -6.5 @ Louisville

The Cardinals (0-2) are coming off a loss courtesy of the University of Houston.  Clemson on the other hand has outscored their opponents 90-20 over the first 2 weeks.  That stat sounds a lot better if you don’t look into it.  Clemson defeated Wofford 49-10 and Appalachian State 41-10; not exactly what you might call big wins.  Regardless, Louisville is 0-2 with a loss to Houston and Clemson hasn’t given up more than 1 touchdown in a game yet this season.  Clemson is a team that has quietly racked up a very respectable record.  The Tigers are 42-11 over the past 4 seasons and have finished each of those seasons ranked in the Top 25 with 1 Top 10 finish (2013).  This game will be played on Thursday night (9/17) so there’s that to think about as well.  The obvious observation to make is Clemson has a huge advantage on a short week right now; their offense has dominated and their defense has been stifling.  Louisville on the other hand has 2 less day to get their shit together and figure out how to beat Clemson.  It’s the first ACC game of the year as well and Clemson has high hopes of winning the conference this season.

OVER/UNDER: OVER 51 (-115) 

#9 Florida State @ Boston College +7.5

After going 2-10 in the 2012 season Boston College decided to cut ties with HC Frank Spaziani and bring in Steve Addazio to take the team in a new direction.  In the 2 seasons since, the Eagles have gone 7-6 both years.  7-6 might be considered a failure for many programs but adding 5 more wins in one season is always impressive.  In addition to salvaging the program, Addazio and his team pulled off a big upset last season in Week 3 at home against the #9 ranked team in the nation: USC.  Ironically, on Friday night the Eagles will step into the exact same situation one year later.  All of these fun facts are cool and all but this is really just about the spread.  The reality is Jimbo Fisher is 35-2 against unranked opponents when his team is ranked in the Top 20.  BC hasn’t beaten FSU since 2009.  But I do like Boston to cover the spread here and lose a game where their fans think they had a chance but they really never had a prayer.  

#23 Northwestern +3.5 @ Duke

I should start by saying, I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick.  I like that Northwestern beat Stanford in week 1. I would love to see the Wildcats go down there and beat what people consider a respectable ACC team.  This is Dukes first real game of the season which could put them at a disadvantage since the Wildcats faced Stanford in week 1.  

Stanford @ #6 USC -10

For a couple years there it was like the PAC12 was in the twilight zone.  Stanford was the team to beat and USC wasn’t even back page news.  It appears though, that the universe has righted itself and restored balance.  USC entered last season with high hopes and came up short, finishing 9-4.  Right now they’re sitting pretty nice, ranked 6th in the nation.  The Cardinals are 1-1 with a loss on the road to Northwestern.  They went 8-5 last season; their worst record since 2009.  It seems as though the times are changing for Stanford.  They arose from the shit and now they must return.  Stanford had 6 winning seasons between 1987 and 2007.  The Trojans should dominate here at home.

SMU @ #3 TCU -37.5

Typically I abide by my rule of staying away from crazy lines but, this one is just screaming free money.  The Horned Frogs obviously have a ridiculous offense.  They get going and they just bury teams.  SMU got blown out by 35 against Baylor even though they went into the 2nd half down by 7.  TCU is an even better team and they’re at home.

#15 Ole Miss @ #2 Alabama -7

A lot of people are talking about this game like there’s going to be some crazy upset.  I don’t think 2 blow out wins over terrible teams means a damn thing for Ole Miss.  Actually, I take that back, I think it hurts them if anything.  Putting up 73 points on Fresno State might make you feel all warm and cozy inside but it does absolutely nothing to prepare a team to face Alabama.  Once again, I take that back. If anything, putting up 70+ points 2 weeks in a row against garbage teams is detrimental to your offensive decision making.  Bama is somewhat out of the spotlight due to all the hype surrounding Ohio State but they are still the 2nd best team in the nation.  

Northern Illinois @ #1 Ohio State -35

I claim that I have rules for staying away from these lines but here I am again taking the bait.  Ohio State is too good not to put on a serious offensive display against Northern Illinois. 

Sugar's Week 2 College Football Picks

Week 2 College Football Picks

Buffalo +20 @ Penn State

Here’s a real barn burner for the fans.  The Nittany Lions look to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to Temple last week.  Let’s get some facts straight here before people go all ape shit, Temple is not a good football team compared to what Penn State will face in the B1G this season.  That loss was turrible. Do I think Penn State is going to lose? Absolutely not. But at the same time, I don’t think Penn State is going to “Sandusky” Buffalo. Too soon? I think Buffalo makes a game out of this and ends up losing by 2 TD’s.  

Western Michigan University -4 @ Georgia Southern

This pick is entirely based on what I saw from WMU last week against the Spartans.  They looked a lot better than I imagined.  Take into consideration that they were up against one of the best defenses in the nation (if not THE best) and managed to put up 24 points, well you get the picture.  Their offense is explosive with big play capabilities.  Two weeks from this Saturday WMU heads to the Horseshoe in Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  Basically, the pressure is on the Bronco’s right now.  They started off their season with an almost guaranteed loss and have another guaranteed loss in 2 weeks.  They gotta win some gamez here.

Notre Dame -12.5 @ Virginia

The Fighting Irish had their way with the Longhorns last weekend, crushing them 38-3.  UT’s offense was nonexistent to say the least.  Virginia shouldn’t pose much more of a challenge for Notre Dame as they look to open up their season 2-0.

Oregon State @ Michigan -15

Have you ever been to a season home opener at the Big House? Me either.  But I imagine 110,000 intoxicated screaming people make for an alright atmosphere.  Just kidding, it’s going to be fucking insane at the Big House this weekend.  This is Harbaugh’s first game back in the Big House since his last year as starting qb for the Wolverines in 1986.  This is a guy who was raised around Bo Schembechler (his dad worked for him) and played for Bo.  Now he has Bo’s old job.  It is not a far stretch to suggest Jim Harbaugh is who he is today largely in part because of Bo.  Let’s get back to this game though.  Harbaugh’s team is going to be ready to go.  Michigan faces a fairly weak OSU team giving them the perfect opportunity to put on a show for the 110,000 fans in attendance.

Oklahoma -1.5 @ Tennessee - LOCK OF THE WEEK

Does anyone think Tennessee is going to win this game? I certainly do not. Want more reasons? subscribe to our super exclusive insider lock package!

Oregon @ Michigan State -3.5

Here’s the biggest match up of the weekend.  The speculation is that this game will turn into a shootout and people wonder if State can keep up if it comes to that.  Not only do I think Sparty can keep up, I think they can “out shoot” the Ducks this year.  However, I don’t think it will come to that.  The Spartan defense is going to be called upon this week and they will answer.  I think Sparty takes this one at home.

UCLA -30 @ UNLV

Typically I stay away from crazy lines like these but, UNLV is really bad.  They won 2 games last year.  UCLA could very easily run this score up real big on the road here.

Idaho @ USC -43

Rolling with another crazy ass line here.  I could lay out the numbers for you but do I really need to?  USC just beat Arkansas State 55-6.  This game should look pretty much the exact same.

Appalachian State @ Clemson -19

I flip flopped on this line a little bit to be honest.  Appalachian State seems like one of the bigger fish in the smaller pond.  Let’s talk about Clemson at home though.  Since 2013 Clemson has lost 1 game at home and it was to the eventual national champion, Florida State in 2013.  They are 13-1 at home since the beginning of the 2013 season.  What’s more impressive is their average margin of victory.  Clemson destroys teams at home.  They call their field Death Valley for a reason. What am I talking about? I’m talking about the 29.7 or 30 point average margin of victory Clemson has in their 13 home wins since the beginning of the 2013 season.  That is insane.  You do not want to play in Death Valley.  The numbers say Clemson will EASILY cover this spread. 

Weekend College Football

Weekend College Football Picks

Michigan State -17.5 @ Western Michigan

#5 Sparty is going to roll into Kalamazoo and lay waste to the Broncos.  The Spartans expect a playoff appearance out of themselves this season.  Tonight they begin that campaign.  WMU should keep it within a touchdown for the first half.  After that expect the Spartans to pile it on.

Baylor @ SMU +37

SMU getting 37 points? Yeah I’m going to take that all the way to the bank.  Baylor can go fuck themselves.  No way they beat SMU by 5 touchdowns.  

Arizona State +3.5 @ Texas A&M

ASU is primed for a big year.  Texas A&M hasn’t been relevant since Manziel left.  They had their 5 minutes of fame and now they’re fading out.  ASU has a chance to make the playoffs this year and a win over Texas A&M on the road would be big.

Wisconsin +12 @ Alabama

I have a feeling Wisconsin is going to surprise some people on Saturday night.  

NCAA Football

Monday Night Locks on the Rocks

NCAA National Championship

Ohio State +7 (-115) vs Oregon 

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!! Who likes free money?! Well here’s a free money lock on the rocks for you.  Oregon and Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota are the favorites tonight.  Everyone saw Florida State go down like the Hindenburg 2 weeks ago.  Did anyone think Florida State was actually a good team? I didn’t.  The Ducks face a legitimate good team tonight.  The Buckeyes might not have a guy named Mariota on their roster but they do have something equally important that Oregon is lacking: Urban “Mr. Big D” Meyer.  Kids today don’t know this but the offense Oregon runs was not created by Chip.  The offense Oregon developed under Chip and still runs today is based off the offense Urban “Mr. Big D” Meyer developed at Bowling Green 15 years ago.  Sit back and dwell on that for a minute Duck fans.  Your claim to fame, your foundation, and your model of success is just a copy.  You took someones final paper, added a couple sentences, switched a couple words, and handed it in as your own.  Except now, the reckoning is upon you.  Urban “MR BIG D” Meyer, creator of your offense has descended upon you in Arlington and his Buckeyes are going to shut shit down.  5 years from now there will be more players from the Buckeyes in the NFL than from the Ducks.  Oregon’s X factor is Mariota, if he has the best game of his life Oregon will win.  OSU’s x factor is Meyer and since he is a grown ass man there is no question of whether or not he will coach the best game of his life.  Ohio State FTW but they should definitely cover.