2014 NFL Props

NFL 2014 Season Award Predictions

  As we continue to try and make it through the worst time of the year in sports (unless you like baseball, which if you do you probably should try another blog) we are going to look at another league that I enjoy almost as much as the NBA. The professional football league is a grown ass man league. Something about giant men running around the field slamming into each other at full speed really just gets my juices going (not gay sex). It really is the modern day equivalent of the Roman coliseum and for a few months a year it reigns supreme over everything else! So in honor of training camps kicking off around the US this past week, let’s try and predict some of the more prestigious awards that are way too early to be betting on.

Will Jadaveon Clowney Win D-ROY?

YES +200

  There is not even another option listed on this bet. Basically you are saying of all the guys in the rookie class, he is going to have the best season. One thing to keep in mind is that this award is not given to who is going to be the best player in five years, or who shows the most potential in their first season. That is why this is actually a pretty tricky award to predict, despite the fact that Mr. Clowney is the overwhelming favorite. Sure he’s on a loaded Houston defense that is going to get him at least 5-6 free sacks just because offenses are so concerned on where JJ Swat is lined up. Sure there is a ton of risk associated with this bet, because the transition is always tough for D-ends to come in the league and start tearing up pro offensive lineman.  That and you have to take into consideration the chance of getting injured and missing all or most of the season. Especially if he plays the Jets who have a history of diving at Texans defender's knees and destroying their careers (our bad Cush Cush). All in all though I think the Clown plays with a chip on his shoulder and actually does lock down this award, leading to a nice +200 payout. Bet big on this and watch in horror as some undrafted Seahawks corner has 12 picks because teams hate throwing at Richard Sherman.

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

This category actually lists more than option, and so I have decided to break it up into two different categories, favorites and dark horses.

FAVORITES

Sammy Watkins Buffalo, 9/2

Brandin Cooks New Orleans, 9/1

  There were so many talented WR’s in this past draft that I think the winner of this award absolutely has to come from someone in this group. Cooks probably has the slight edge here because he has Drew Brees throwing him the ball in a Sean Payton offense, whereas the Bills have an unproven EJ Manuel who missed most of last season after getting hurt early on. Watkins definitely has talent though and that really is not the issue here. The real question is whether or not the Buffalo QB’s can get him the ball, and there is always the possibility that they could get him hurt by overusing the fuck out of him. Seriously if Spiller struggles again, the Bills have no other options and might target Watkins 15-20 times a game! It might be too early to coin the term “Watkins ratio” like the old Vikings coach tried to pull with Randy Moss, but it is definitely in play. Side bar, did that seriously happen? It seems like a joke, but a coach actually developed something where he made sure his star WR was involved in ¼ of the plays or something like that!! That is ridiculous, and probably one of the reasons he doesn’t coach anymore. Go with Cooks here as he has a higher payout and a better QB.

DARK HORSES

Jace Amaro, J-E-T-S, 25/1

Kelvin Benjamin Carolina, 14/1

  Two more pass catchers thrown in the mix that should definitely be on the list at the end of the season. First we got the big ole white fella out of Texas Tech given to a QB that needed a safety valve and an offense devoid of pass catching receivers. Sure he is listed as a TE, but he will be split out a large portion of the time and should benefit from some mismatches against smaller nickel corners and linebackers. At the moment he is struggling to pick up the Jets’ offense, because I am pretty sure the one at Tech didn’t call any plays or have any verbiage, they just told him to get open like he playing in the school yard with his buddies. Imagine what he is going to look like when he’s actually given routes to run in the context of an offense!! Plus at 25/1, you can’t afford not to make this bet! I mean, that’s free money right there, and you like free money right??
  Moving on to Benjamin, we have another guy dropped into an offense devoid of any talent at all, and given to a QB that desperately needed some help. Sure the knock on Big Benj is that he is just that, big, and not really a true pass catching wide receiver. But as far as I could tell, Jameis Winston didn’t have any problem throwing to him last season as they won the national championship, and his jump ball in the end zone talent could easily get him 6-8 touchdowns and right in the thick of the race come week 17.

M-V-P! M-V-P!

Again the field is loaded and even though Peyton is the favorite to run away with it (again), do not be surprised if his numbers come back to earth this season after last year’s record breakers. At this point I could list some of the favorites that will most likely end up winning the award, but that's not why we get paid the big bucks here at Dirty Picks!! (Editors Note: No one makes any money at Dirty Picks. Advertisements welcome!) Instead I'm gonna focus on some of the dark horses who probably won't win, but if they do you are gonna be rich as shit!

Colin Kaepernick (20/1)

Jay "Big Cutz" Cutler (20/1)

RGIII (25/1)

Super Dark horse (pun intended)

Geno Smith (300/1)- just kidding

The list above minus Geno are legitimate potential candidates especially the first two. Both Kap and Jay have potential for huge breakout seasons if they can stay healthy all year, especially Cutler because that Bears offense is loaded. RG3 is interesting because of his dual threat ability and the fact that he has had a full year to recover after a serious knee injury. Plus the Redskins have a terrible defense so he should be involved in a ton of shootouts and hopefully inflating his numbers. I'm not saying bet the house on any of these guys, but a few bucks would be a decent shot in the dark if it pays off. Even as a Jets fan it is literally a joke that Geno has odds. The odds of him starting all sixteen games is a better bet than throwing your money away on him winning the MVP, sorry Geno!

Passing leader

Again the favorites are your usual suspects, I.e. Brady, Rogers, Brees, etc... But the two bets to watch here are Luck at 20/1 and Bradford at 100/1. Luck has only gotten better every year despite all of the reports of how overrated he is. Well if turning a franchise around in one season is overrated I would sign up for that every year. Bradford has dealt with injuries every year in the NFL, but the Rams like him enough to keep sending him out every year. If he can get improved blocking up front and a decent amount of growth from his offensive weapons he could put up some impressive numbers.