2015 NBA Draft Preview
1) Jahlil Okafor - C - Duke
Best case: Al Jefferson. Worst case: Derrick Favors. Most likely: Greg Monroe.
Nutz: The knock on Oakdawg, as he will be known next year, is that he's just not that exciting. He's kind of slow. Doesn't throw down big dick swinging dunks like Deandre Jordan. Doesn't have unlimited three point range and won't block 5 shots a game off the backboard. I would have to agree with most critics on these points. Okafor is not a flashy Amare Stoudemire type player, but he's a damn good post player that has a high basketball IQ, a great (GREAT) back to the basket game and a great NBA body. I'd be willing to bet he averages a solid 19-9 through his career. People think he's going to be out of shape for some reason, but that didn't seem to be an issue while he was playing 30 mpg on the way to a national title. BUT NO LET'S TAKE THE GUY THAT PLAYED 20 FUCKING MINUTES PER GAME WHO ALREADY LOOKS FAT! HE'LL BE IN GREAT SHAPE.
Catz: First off this dude carried Duke to a national championship at an age where most kids are still learning how to lift the seat up when they take a piss (I've almost got the hang of it). Sure you can argue that Justise and Tyus contributed way more to them cutting down the nets, but the Oak tree (you heard it here first) was very solid. His low post game will already be top 5-10 the moment he puts on an NBA uniform and if he goes to the right team (one with a defensive center) he can make an instant impact with 12-15 ppg and 6 or 7 boards. My biggest concern besides the obvious defense and weight concerns are the comments of Coach K, basically telling whatever fan base that ends up with him to give him some time because he is not quite the polished product that the general public has made him out to be. A little concerning, because the last time Coach K said something like that it was about Austin Rivers and we all saw how that one turned out...In the end his low post game should be enough to secure him a roster spot for 10 years, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't amount to more than a rotation player.
2) Karl Anthony Towns - C - Kentucky
Best case: . Worst case: . Most likely: Greg Monroe.
Nutz: I do not see the hype around KAT. When scouts and analysts are saying "he can do it all" and "no weaknesses" or "can shoot it from three with ease" all I want is a little tape backing these things up. KAT is not a transcendent number one draft pick! He's a project that has some nice tools to be the third or fourth best player on your team. He's not this 20 point scorer that everyone has been talking about, he's not an elite rebounder, he's not an elite shooter, he's a basketball player with good size. When you can take a solid wing player like Justise Winslow who can guard the best players in the league, you do it! Don't grab some guy that made an OK impact on his college team. The hype train is running full steam at this point and eventually it's going to fall off a cliff when people realize Towns is Derrick Coleman.
Catz: It's easy to see why NBA GM's are interested in the notorious KAT. He's a 7 footer who not only can walk and talk at the same time, but also play a little bit of basketball. He definitely has a higher ceiling than the Oak tree due to his size, defensive abilities and a very smooth shooting stroke. Unlike Jahlil though, he doesn't have much on the block besides a decent left hook that he uses probably a little too much. All that being said he could be a really nice player in a few years, possibly even on the verge of a "franchise player" but that is probably setting the bar a little too high. Now if he comes in and is able to knock down the jumper consistently and even extend his range beyond the three point line, you are getting a solid NBA player...but if he doesn't get stronger and never develops on the offensive end, you are basically looking at Andrew Bogut, and where was Bogut this last finals? On the bench.
3) Justise Winslow - F - Duke
Best case: Jimmy Butler. Worst case: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Most likely: Luol Deng.
Catz: The unsung hero of March Madness. Seriously if Duke didn't have this dude to go off against Arizona and Gonzaga there was no way they cut down the nets at the end of the tournament. He's got great size, very athletic, and can score the basketball. Throw in the fact that he's a lefty and can get to the rim at will and you have the makings of a very solid "combo guard" at the NBA level. While he isn't exactly Ray Allen with his jump shot, he's not Michael Kidd-Gilchrist either, and a couple of minor tweaks and bam you got a respectable NBA 3 point shooter. Whoever gets him is going to be super pumped, he can come in and contribute right away and has a decently high ceiling, like NBA all-star ceiling. Also he's from Houston, Texas and he dominated at the high school level, so you know he's not scared of shit. This dude is a winner, again I would take him first if I had the pick.
Nutz: Justise is my favorite player in this draft and it's not even close. Not only does he have the name of a black superhero from the 80's, he's a great wing defender with an above average offensive game. Winslow comes in with an NBA ready body, a high motor and a championship pedigree. His defensive ability will cement him as a starter from day one and his ability on the fast break will surprise a lot of people. There is not a lot else to say about Winslow except that he is the most NBA ready prospect in this draft. You draft Justise, you know what you're getting.
4) Emmanuel Mudiay - G - China???
Best case: Russell Westbrook. Worst case: Rodney Stuckey. Most likely: John Wall .
Catz: The great Chinese unknown! Okay, that's a little misleading, he's actually from the Congo, went to high-school in Texas and then played in China for the last year on the same team as NBA LEGEND Yi Jianlian!! So is he ready for the NBA? That's what GM's will have to ask themselves when they are on the clock next Thursday. Me personally, I have a thing for tall point guards, so I am definitely in his corner. He's 6'5 and can score/pass really well at the point guard position. To me personally, him and Winslow have the potential to be the best players coming out of this class, but you know NBA teams always have to take the tall guys because you can't teach height! Seriously if this guy went to SMU like he was supposed to, he would be in contention for the number one pick, but who says playing in China for a year isn't a good thing? He knows what it's like to be a pro and play against pros, so he should be ready to go right from the jump? Am I missing something here? Oh Yi dominates in the CBA, that should tell you about the level of competition over there. So it might take a little bit, but I think this guy is going to be a future all-star.
Nutz: I enjoy Mudiay. He pulled a Brandon Jennings and said "fuck education" to all the naysayers out there. Can't say that's smart, but I admire his swag. Mudiay's biggest strength is his body. The man is an athlete. He's fast, has great body control and is strong as fuck. He's tall for a point guard and has great vision which is more than can be said for an Eric Bledsoe or Marcus Smart. I really think there is some Russell Westbrook potential here, but I'm not sure that Mudiay is that driven. He definitely has the tools to be a 20-7-5 guy in the NBA, but there is still a fair share of unknown with the Tex-Cong point guard. I project him to have a fairly productive rookie year on paper, but one in which he's not very efficient, almost a Tyreke Evans type of rookie year.
5) D' Angelo Russell - G - Ohio St.
Best Case: Penny Hardaway (not injured) Worst Case: Evan Turner Most likely: Some Sort of Lance Stephenson
Catz: Of all the big time prospects in this draft, this is the guy I have the least confidence in. Just too many red flags being thrown around here like not the best athlete, or not a traditional point guard. I understand that there is a lot of talent here for a 19 year old who was very impressive at times in a conference that had a solid year, but I think the rep he is getting as the best point guard prospect in the draft is a little too much. Could he be a solid point guard in the NBA? Sure. Is he the next Russell Westbrook as I've heard a couple scouts throw out there? Doubt it. Don't expect too much out of this guy early on especially if he goes to a team that expects him to run the point from day one.
Nutz: I'm not as down on D Russ as Mr. Catz is. He just seems like one of those guys that is a really, really good basketball player. There's nothing he does that sticks out more than anyone elses main skill. He's not a great shooter, great athlete, certainly not a bad ass defender; so what the hell is he? He can ball out. He cares about the game and he was a leader on the floor as a freshman! He could turn out to be Evan Turner, but he could also be a very good hybrid guard. Either way, Russell has a nice 10 year career ahead, even if it's as the 8th man on the bench.
6) Kristaps Porzingis - F - Latvia
Best Case: Dirk Nowitzki Worst Case: Yi Jianlan Most likely: Andrea Bargnani
Catz: The talk of the 2015 NBA draft!! This dude has been blowing up lately, mostly because of a workout video of him that surfaced showing him killing it against air for his NBA draft workout. If anything that should be a huge red flag, because the last two examples we have of someone shooting up the charts because of a great workout were Yi Jianlian and Darko Milicic. Then there was a flood of articles about how it is actually unfair to compare him to these busts because this guy isn't your typical European prospect, I mean for god sakes he speaks English fluently!! His immediate impact is largely going to depend on what team ends up selecting him and how much of a leash he is given from the start. If he goes to the Lakers two or the Knicks at four he is more fucked than a hooker at a GOP convention! If he gets ten years to develop with the Sixers or someone like that, he could actually develop into a poor mans Mirotic in a couple of years. No he's not gonna be the second coming of Dirk, but he could definitely contribute in a couple of years if he goes in to the right situation.
Nutz: Nope. This won't work. Take this guy outside of the top 10 and you have a smart, helpful draft pick. Take him 5-9, you're reaching, but can make it work. Top 4? NOPE! You lose. You're taking a skinny, weak, slow, non rebounding 7ft shooter that has never played against the best of the best in the US. Dirk is one of a kind, let's stop trying to replicate him. I love Euro players. They play team ball, they're smart and they can all shoot somehow. When you throw an insane multi billion dollar franchise expectation on them, you're killing their career. Sorry Zinger, but you're Andrea Bargnani.
BEST OF THE REST
Now that we have taken a look at the top prospects in this draft you might as well shut off your TV after about the sixth pick right? Well hold on there Skippy...This draft doesn't have a lot of superstars up top, but there is some solid depth and some real diamonds in the rough if you look at the right places.
Catz
The rest of Kentucky
I know big KAT gets all the pub, but the rest of this team could all be solid NBA veterans for the next ten years. Seriously every single one of them, some of them even have potential to be stars. It blows my mind that Willie Caulie-Stein isn't going higher in this draft. I get that he is probably maxed out offensively already, but he could be Tyson Chandler in a couple of years, and with the right point guard that is a very solid combination. **UNPOPULAR OPINION ALERT** but I think at least one of the Harrison twins could develop into a solid NBA role player. It may not happen right away, but now that the pressure of playing at Kentucky is off, they could settle in and actually find their niche. Dakari Johnson is going to be a solid back up NBA center. But the real gems here are Trey Lyles and Devin Booker. This might just be the 24 oz of Red Bull speaking, but I honestly think that these two could end up being the best players in this draft 5-10 years from now. Booker is an assassin, and carried UK offensively at times, despite only getting limited minutes off the bench. Lyles is a Swiss Army knife that showed the potential to play SF out of necessity, but is projected as more of a stretch 4, and oh yeah he is legit 7 ft tall.
Tyus "M'FIN" Jones!!
I think I speak for both basketball writers of DP when I say that Tyus was our favorite college player last year, and legitimately could be a stud at the next level. Yeah he has the size concerns because he is tiny even for an NBA point guard, but this dude knows the game. Listen to the way Coach K raves about him and how he basically handed him the keys to the offense as an 18 year old because this dude was way ahead of his peers. He hit big shots time and time again and basically controlled the game like CP3 when he wasn't running the Duke offense as smoothly as '67 Chevy Impala. Am I saying he is gonna be a franchise player...damn it's tempting, but more than likely he will be a solid NBA rotation player, maybe even a starter on a bottom half team. And if he goes to the Rockets, which almost every mock has him doing, that is almost too perfect of a fit and he will absolutely thrive.
Mr. Nutz
Mario Hezonja
If I were a GM and wanted to roll the dice on a young marketable player, I'm pulling the Mario H card! Number 1 player in the draft! He brings confidence, insane brashness and an incredible shooting touch that can only be rivaled by the legendary JR Smiff! Hezonja is the reincarnation of Rudy Fernandez without the emotional problems. He's either going to dunk on you or he's going to shoot a 3. The man is going to be a star. Mark my words.
SUPER SUPER SLEEPER!!
Cliff Alexander
So he had a terrible year for Kansas where he could barely crack the rotation and ultimately ended up leaving the team early. BUT, this dude was compared to Amare Stoudamire coming out of high school, and there was almost a riot in his home state after he pranked the fans of Indiana before ultimately committing to Kansas. Well the joke was ultimately on him, but I think his game could translate better to the NBA. He is definitely going to need a few years to develop, but he could be a solid NBA PF sooner rather than later.
