NBA Pod & Picks

The Spread is up for this week! Rob and Brandon break down the early NBA storylines. How good are the Warriors? What's wrong with Houston? Way too early playoff predictions, hot takes and more this week on The Spread!




MIL +3 vs WAS

Word on the street is Bradley Beal will probably miss tonight's game as he is still nursing an injured shoulder. Either way grabbing the points here with Waukee is a good call. Bucks are coming off a hard fought win against the Cavaliers and should be able to translate those positive vibes into a win against the Wizards in chocolate city.

DEN +6 vs NOP
I made the mistake of betting the over the other night when the Nuggets played the Suns, and then watched Jameer Nelson jack up terrible three after terrible three en route to a thirty point blowout loss. You know what helps a team get their confidence back? Playing the always injured lineup that the Pelicans like to trot out. Sure Anthony Davis is playing really well like he was supposed to do, but he is not getting any help, at all...zero. Take the points here.


TOR +10 vs GSW
Upset pick of the day!!! If you listen to the podcast you already know this is my upset special of the day (if you don't, click the link below and treat yourself to some aural pleasure). The Warriors should have lost to the Nets a few nights ago and tonight definitely has the feel of a letdown game for the Dubs. If the Raptors can get just enough defensively out of Kyle Lowry and Demarre Carroll they should have enough to do the unthinkable and beat the Warriors on their home floor no less!!

Round 1 NBA

ATL vs. BKN (+4.5)

This pick is more of a "what I want to see" rather than a likely to happen cover. Atlanta has not looked like the team that rolled through the regular season a few months ago, whereas Brooklyn actually did things that made sense these last few games. Well, everything except playing Deron Williams more than 5mpg. If Brooklyn somehow ties this series up at two, I will definitely be that guy in the office telling everyone within earshot that I called that shit like two weeks ago.

MIL (+8.5) vs. CHI

This could be classified as "Nutz and Catz: Super Fish Line of the Week", but hold on a few more lines we will get to the real stink shortly. Milwaukee is such a fun team to watch play, mostly because the Greek Freak doesn't comply with the rules of gravity/nature that apply to nearly all other mortals. With all that being said, this line could definitely be dangerous. You know Chicago is going to come out super motivated after last games buzzer beater loss, and the Bucks swagger could lead to a ton of jacked up threes...but I still like the 8.5 here. These games have been far too close not to take this many points at home.

MEM vs. POR (-3)

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: NUTZ AND CATZ SUPER STINKY FISH LINE OF THE DAY!! This line has such a pungent, sour smell that I might wrap it up in a grape swisher and smoke it! Seriously though folks, why is Rip City favored by three? What does Vegas know that the rest of us aren't privy to? One thing I've learned is always do the opposite of what Vegas is hoping, as the saying goes "Overpriced, tacky hotels don't get built on the back of good teams getting points!". I'm sure that's a saying, but either way Portland is definitely winning this game, probably in blowout fashion.

NBA and NHL Tuesday Night

2014-15 NBA Record: 20-15

Mr. Nutz:

OKC @ MIL (-3)

I'm sorry if I'm beating a dead centaur here, but I hate the Oklahoma City Thunder. Especially when they don't have the leagues most valuable player with no real position, Russell Westbrook. The Thunder are relying on Reggie Jackson, HEAVILY, along with Sebastian Telfair and Serge Ibaka. I don't care, just take the points every night from here on out. The Bucks have a Greek Freak who coach Jason Kidd told to be "more aggressive" after he put up a career high 18 points last week. Let's not forget, Jabari Parker is due for a 35 point game and I think tonight is the night. After Larry Sanders knocks Serge Ibaka out with a bottle of Ciroc, I think this one will be over for the Thunder. 

CHA @ POR (-7.5)

I have been all aboard the "bet on Portland to win/cover at home" train for a while now and it is paying off. The Blazers feed off of their hipster, microbrew sipping, passive-agressive fans and have a very deep, talented roster. With two legit stars and a supporting cast that can hang with some starting fives in the league, the Blazers have been criminally underrated for a while now. Tonight they take on the Hornets, which is the team that has Kemba and Lance (Right....? Let me check.....Yep). The Hornets just dropped a terrible one to the Lakers on Sunday and I don't think they're ready for this West Coast swing. Nic Batum should have a very steady game tonight to compensate for the 35-19 Al Jefferson will be putting up. Keep riding the Blaze train!

SAS @ GS (-7.5) 

How easy is it to say, "The Spurs are getting SEVEN points?!!! Sign em up! Cash it!" tonight? Very, very easy. So easy, in fact, that I absolutely refuse to do it. I love the Spurs and was super pumped that they won the title last year, but they are not into full season swing right now. As a lot of people have done before, I compare them to the New England Patriots. They take a few weeks to figure things out, people start freaking out and BAM, they flip the switch and dominate the regular season. They aren't there yet and Pop is damn sure not going to send his guys out there to ball out in an early November game on a back-to-back. Some guys will be sitting, or there will be very limited minutes. The Warriors have been awesome this year and I expect them to kill it tonight.

Catz:

ORL (+10.5) vs. Toronto

This was a last second flip-flop that my editor is probably going to get pretty upset about. I just had to admit to both myself and to the loyal readers of Dirty Picks that I am not sold on the Raptors quite yet. I think they have totally over-achieved thus far and are due to come back towards the pack eventually. Well, eventually starts tonight. The Magic are not a good team, I repeat, the Magic are not even a decent team. They are probably one of the worst three teams in the league, playing on the road. This pick makes no sense, that's why you have to roll it!! Sit on the edge of your seat as Aaron Gordon jacks up awkward looking jumpers from the elbow, clanging enough bricks to build a house three little piggies could live in! This is a ballsy pick that if you are smart you may want to throw in a teaser with the Memphis game to ensure a cover.

LAL vs. MEM (-10)

GRINDHOUSE!!! This is my crush team of the season so far, even surpassing my hometown PHX Suns. I love the way they muck up the paint and force teams to do things that they are not comfortable doing. If they can get even a decent amount of scoring from their role players, they are going to be more than okay. This Lakers team on the other side? They suck. They got lucky last night playing against a terrible road team and were barely able to squeeze a win out of that. Tonight? Not so lucky, this one is going to be a defensive clinic as the Grizz force the Lakers into shooting an astonishing 25% from the floor!!

SAC (+6.5) vs. Dallas

The Kings so far this season have not fucked me. That's huge. I am going to keep riding them until they fuck me, much like the strategy I had with the Cavs until they busted that wide open last night. But, the Kings have done enough to retain my trust for now, and I will keep riding them until they screw me.

Sugar's Super Sweet Hockey Lockz

Minnesota (-125) @ New Jersey

New Jersey is having problems finishing games right now.  They have held leads in both of their last 2 games and lost.  My fellow writer BJ AKA Mr. Nutz would like you to believe that 'Sota is the real deal this year.  While I'm hesitant to acknowledge that, largely because they compete in the West, I do think they are superior to almost every Eastern Conference team.  Minnesota on the road.

Colorado @ NY Islanders (-140)

I never bought into the little fling of the islanders being some elite level team.  This isn't the MLB; teams don't go from garbage to elite over a summer.  Except Colorado last year which was all a big misunderstanding. (See current NHL standings). I think the Isles are solid at home though. Watch for Tavares to snip one bar south.

Pittsburgh @ NY Rangers 

OVER 5.5 (EVEN)

This games got OVER graffiti'd all over it.  The Cros show vs Rick Nash and Company? Please. It's free money.  Watch for Malkin to bury, Crosby to have probably 3 assists and a goal while Rick Nash scores 2 or 3 or 4.

Columbus @ Washington (-200)

Honestly I feel bad for the Jackets.  They're suffering from an injury problem that I really haven't seen before in the NHL. Oh wait just kidding yes I have, last year. The Detroit Red Wings went through the same if not worse injury problems and still made playoffs.  Figure it the fuck out Columbus. Stop sucking.  Most likely they won't read the DP blog before their game tonight (their mistake), won't get that message and will still play like a junior team tonight.  Caps roll at home in a much needed confidence booster.

Winnipeg @ Montreal 

UNDER 5 (EVEN)

I don't really know what this Jets' team is all about. They started off horrible then randomly went off a 6 game win streak and took down some of the best teams in the league.  The common theme with their games though is they hold the other team to 1 or 0 goals.  With Montreal struggling to puck the biscuit in the basket I think the under is solid here.

San Jose (-155) @ Florida

Do I really need to sell you on this pick?

Edmonton @ Nashville (-190)

Nashville is solid.  They're veteran led with a good group of young guns.  Edmonton is Edmonton. I think the Preds roll at home. Watch for Mike Fish(er) to bury one and point to his celeb wife, Carrie Underwood, in the crowd.

Dallas (-120) @ Arizona

Dallas is good. Arizona isn't. That's really all there is.

NBA Picks

BJ's Same Old Shit Thursday Picks

LA Lakers (+3) at Milwaukee Bucks (Push)
The Lakers have had a nightmare season this year. Pretty much everyone is injured, Mike D'Antoni doesn't give a shit anymore and the ownership group has more star power than the starting 5. One thing is clear, the Lakers still try harder than they should. Some of these guys are trying to stay in the league or stay in LA and the Mike D system is great for padding stats. The Lakeshitshow might get blown out tonight, but a tanking Bucks squad shouldn't be given any points.

LA Clippers (-1) at Dallas Mavericks (WINNER!)
CP3 needs to bounce back after the worst night shooting night in Clipper's history. The Clips should be fine for a top 3 spot in the West, but the Mavs have to win the bulk of their games to sneak into the playoff picture. Look for CP3 and Blake to put up big numbers and Jamal Crawford vs Monta Ellis to put up a record amount of contested J's.

Philadelphia at Houston (Under 215) (L)
I've been fooled by this one too many times. The 76ers suck at defense and play an insanely high paced game. This leads me to believe, on a nightly basis, that their games are going to go over. That shit doesn't happen. The Rockets might score 110 tonight, but Philly is only scoring 99, because D-League dudes can't play offense.

NBA Picks

One of the worst things in the world is being sick, even worse than that is being sick at work and not having any sick time to call in (damn Obamacare). In honor of this predicament I'm going to make a couple of picks that reflect my mood, that's right over/unders!!

PHO at Toronto (OVER 204.5) (WINNER!)
The Suns are in a Bolivian cock fighting death match for the eighth seed in the West playoffs. Unlucky for them they are going up against a very solid Rapetors team that is hard to defeat anywhere let alone on a Sunday morning road game in Toronto. The only sure thing about this game is that it will be sloppy and little to no defense will be played. Look for a high scoring affair that sees the Rapetors put a huge dent in the Suns playoff hopes.

Catz at MIL (UNDER 197.5) (WINNER!)
The Bobcats are great on defense and have been very solid against the spread recently. On the other hand Milwaukee is in full blown tank mode and are starting to pull those unusual moves that are indicative of a tanking team (OJ Mayo two straight DNP's-Coaches decision). Look for this game to be a slow grind it out post up marathon featuring a lot of Big Al Jefferson putting on a low post clinic. This one should be slow, boring and well under a total of 197.

BOS at NO (UNDER 195) (L)
Boston had a hard time getting to 80 points in four quarters last night and that was against the Suns who aren't known for their defense. While New Orleans isn't exactly the 2002 Red Wings they do have Anthony Davis who is an absolute monster and only 20 years old!! Look for AD to swat away every shot the Celtics put up in the paint and for this one to be a defensive struggle throughout. Don't be surprised if this game ends in one of the lowest scoring games of the entire season.

UTA at SA (OVER 200.5) (WINNER!)
Vegas really wants you to look at that Utah +15 and jump all over it. Two bigs, a solid back court and future Spurs All-Star Gordon Hayward? How can you not take those points?! Don't do it. San Antonio is once again showing why they will be somewhere near the Finals this year as Tony Parker penetrate the leagues best defenses like they are Brent Barry's wife. Count on the Spurs to score at least 110, and the Jazz might keep it within 10.

NBA Picks

Tuesdays Tenacious Tsunami Throwdown

Today's games were harder to pick than the struggle of acting like you are interested in engaging in casual coworker office conversation. Nevertheless sometimes you just have to grip it and rip it.

DAL at GS (-5) (WINNER!)
Steph Curry has been hobbled with a quad injury as of late, but the Warriors continue to roll anyway. Tonight they welcome in the Dallas Mavs who feature the second most dangerous man in German history. Betting against Dirk always makes me pee my pants a little bit, but the Warriors have been playing too well of late to ignore this cover. Look for the Warriors to shoot the lights and out and defend the shit out of the two headed Dirk/Monta Ellis combo, leading to an easy 15 point win.

MIL (+14.5) at MIN (WINNER!)
This game is like one of those jumpers that JR smith shoots after he scores a couple of buckets. Right when it leaves his hand you go "what the fuck" only for him to drain it and you act like you knew it was going in the whole time. The Bucks are not what you would call a good basketball team, but the Wolves aren't exactly the 2002 Red Wings either (Sugar shout out!!!). Look for this game to be tightly contested throughout with the Wolves making little runs, but never being completely able to blow the Bucks out. Wolves win by 7-10 and the Bucks get the cover.

HOU at OKC (UNDER 217) (WINNER!)
My record with picking over/ unders correctly isn't exactly what you would call "great"; but if you think that's gonna stop me from picking this game, then you don't know the Bobcat. Every once in a while you have to take some risks, like when you see that the expiration date on your milk was three days ago, but you say fuck it and drink that shit.Tonight's game is going to have a playoff like atmosphere to it. Usually in the playoffs teams focus extra hard on the defensive end and it leads to some pretty close low scoring games. That is exactly what is gonna happen tonight. Look for the Thunder to control this game from the tip and for the combined score to land somewhere in low 200's.

BJ's Fat Over/Unders

POR at MEM (UNDER 196.5) (L)
These teams usually play pretty close to this line and have recently finished right above it. Memphis is coming in well rested, and nobody in the NBA is better at making teams play their style than the Grizz. Marc Gasol & co. will try to make it hard on LaMarcus Alrdidge down low, while Mike Conley and Tony Allen will wear down Damian Lillard. It's going to take solid ball movement to beat the Grizz and on the other end, prepare for long, slow possessions. This one is risky, but this will be a playoff style slugfest. Look for 93-91 as the final.

BOS at IND (OVER 192.5) (L)
Another risky one! The Pacers are in a slump and need to snap out of it, fast. The Celtics meanwhile are still coasting along, allowing just about anybody to put up 100+ points on them. Rondo should help their offense flow a little better, but against an hostile, desperate Pacer team, don't expect too much. This should be Indian 103-Boston 91, so take the over and let's see if the Pacers can round into playoff form. 

Bobby Catz is Back!

When NBA players find themselves struggling, they tend to return to the basics and simplify things. After taking a night off making my picz, I too was able to get away from the noise and focus on what got me here in the first place. In classic movie soul-searching montage; I went for a walk, fed ducks at the local pond, and even helped a blind lady cross the street. During this time I came to the realization that I had been overthinking all of these picks and not picking from the place where all great picks come from, my balls. So in honor of getting my groove back (like Stella) I will be successfully picking all five of tomorrow's NBA games.

MIL at PHI (-3) (L)
Not much thought here, the home team has won in each of the last four meetings. Look for Thaddeus Young, and MCW to roll for the Sixers.

GSW(-5) at DET (WINNER!)
The Warriors are down Andrew Bogut and David Lee, but on the bright side Jermaine O'Neal has turned back the clock. Look for the hot outside shooting of the dubs to take over this game and for the warriors to continue their hot start to the second half of the season.

LAC (-5) at NO  (WINNER!)
This one has mismatch written all over it. Pelicans struggle to put the ball in the hoop, which coincidentally is the second most important aspect of playing in the NBA (the first is tattoos). Meanwhile Lob City has been rolling lately and are getting contributions across the board. The Clips will rip and run all night in this one.

BOS at Utah (-2.5) (WINNER!)
The Butler reunion. Look for this matchup to be decided by the pupil not the teacher, as Gordon Hayward goes for 33 pts, 15 assists, 6 blocks and 13 steals. Jazz roll, rondo puts up a solid line for the celtics.

DAL (-2) at NY (P)
The Knicks have been struggling bad as of late. Melo is averaging a shit load of points (figures not exact) lately and getting no help from any of his teammates. He admitted recently that the frustration from recent losses has really been setting in lately. Now does that sound like something you want to hear from a team you are putting money on? Me either, Dirk and the Mavs tear that ass up and roll in MSG.